Betting NFL teasers can be both fun and profitable.
Key Points
- Successful NFL teaser betting begins with understanding the key numbers or the most common scoring margins.
- NFL teaser betting strategy includes crossing key numbers, not crossing zero, looking for short underdogs and long favorites, and shopping for the best prices.
For those unaware, a teaser bet is a parlay in which the bettor pays for the opportunity to move the spread in his favor by a certain number of points. The most common NFL teaser is the two-team, six-point version.
So, how can you successfully bet NFL teasers? Here are a number of strategies any bettor can use to improve their success at betting NFL teasers.
Cross the Key Numbers When Betting NFL Teasers
NFL bettors must first understand that more games end with a scoring margin of 3 and 7 than any other number. The six most common scoring margins in NFL games are 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 14. With an understanding of these key numbers, you can begin to look for NFL teaser bets.
Ideally, bettors should look for favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 and underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5. Here’s why. Remember, in an NFL teaser bet the bettor gets to move the point spread. In this case, we move it six points.
Let’s take the Patriots -7.5 and the 49ers +2.5. In putting together our two-team, six-point teaser, we can tease the Patriots spread down to -1.5 and the 49ers up to +8.5.
What we have done in both cases is cross those key numbers. Remember, more games end in margins of 3 and 7. All New England has to do is win by two or more in this case. If the Niners either lose by 8 or less or win outright, the teaser is a winner.
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Don’t Cross Zero
There are some who will tease a spread past zero, but typically bettors should not cross zero on a teaser. The reason is NFL games usually do not end in a tie. NFL playoff games can’t end in a tie.
If you tease a spread from say -3 to +3, you are paying for an outcome – that the game would end with a margin of 0 or a tie – that doesn’t exist.
Shop Around if You’re Betting NFL Teasers
Just as with individual bets, you can find better prices on teasers if you shop around. Why pay -130 when you can find the same teaser bet at -115 at another offshore sportsbook?
That also brings up teaser pricing. The break-even point on a two-team, six-point teaser jumps from 72.4% to 75.2% at -130 odds. That is about the historical cover rate (75.6%) of NFL games teased through 3 and 7.
Paying anything more than -130 for a teaser heavily tilts the advantage to the sportsbook.
Other Considerations When Betting NFL Teasers
One NFL teaser strategy includes looking for underdogs in low-scoring games. Underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5 in games where the total is 47 or less have covered 77 percent of the time when teased by six points.
When the total is higher than 47, the cover rate is lower at 70 percent when teased by six points.
We hope this helps you be well on your way to winning more when betting NFL teasers.
