Dan Leach’s 2014 NFL Lock’s: Week 4 Edition

With the NFL season heating up, so do my NFL picks, which will be here for you each and every week to help you win your pick-em-pool, embarrass your friends, and just become a more whole football fan and human being. It’s all about making money and having a great time while doing so. I will be here for you each and every week to help you do just that as well as embarrass your friends and just become a more whole football fan and human being. I will take a look at five games each week with the best value and rate them on a sliding lock of the week 1-10 scale. Off a rousing 4-1 week there, lets aim for perfection this week. And….Away….We….Go!

DTM Song Of The Week: “Summer” Calvin Harris. As summer officially ends and fall is upon us. Here is a song that will make you feel like you are on the beach sipping Mai Tai’s with a gaggle of hot guys or girls, whatever your pleasure, no matter how cold it is outside. If you like EDM music as the kids call it , run don’t walk to the Calvin Harris show coming to the Fillmore in Detroit on October 19th. I promise it will change your life or at least come close to doing so.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears 1 p.m. Sunday TV Fox (Packers -2)

The Bears weren’t overly impressive on Monday Night Football against the Jets as they build a big lead and held on for dear life in the second half. The Pack managed just seven points against the gasp….top ranked Lions defense. This game has the feel of a shootout as both teams D’s lack depth and something tells me Brandon Marshall will not be held to one catch on his home field. It likely will be a “team that has the ball last wins” affair , and that team will be the home-standing Bears.

5.5 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Bears +2

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans 1 p.m. EST Sunday TV CBS 62 (Texans -3)

The Bills continually tease you into thinking they are on the rise then they come out with an absolute dud of a performance at home against the Super Chargers. The Texans haven;t been much sexier as they hung on against the Skins in week one and we all know that doesn’t mean much. Then rocked the Raiders , which means even less, before getting blasted by the G-Men. The good news for H-Town though is the team has a solid defense and is primed for a breakout game at Reliant Stadium. Harvard’s best Ryan Fitzpatrick will mange the game just well enough to keep the Bills at bay and in the Continental United states. Sorry Mayor Rob Ford, get well soon though.

6.5 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Texans -3

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs 8:30 p.m. EST Monday TV ESPN (Pats -3.5)

You know the old adage, “Don’t go against a home dog on MNF”. It doesn’t always come true , but its one of the more reliable plays over the last 10 years in the NFL, hitting at over a 68% clip. The other old adage is don’t bet against Andy “Cheesesteak” Reid the week after his team gets it going as the Chiefs did last week in sand blasting Miami. Terrific Tom Brady and the Pats have looked dreadful on offense so far in 2014 and while I think they will get the offense looking closer to what many expect over the next few weeks, this is a tough matchup for them. K.C is one of the most balanced teams in the league and if they can slow down Brady and company on offense, they have the right mix to not only hang in this game , but win it outright in front of one of the most raucous crowds in the NFL.

7.1 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Chiefs +3.5

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49’ers 4:25 p.m. EST Sunday TV Fox (Niners -5)

This should be extra juicy as the Niners need a solid performance as bad as the NFL itself needs to a quiet week away from crime. Captain Kaepernick has been anything but solid and S.F is coming off punch-in-the-mouth loss in the desert to the Cardiac Cards. Philly looked good at times and equally bad at times in their win over Washington last week, but the offense does seems to be coming to life. This should be a back and forth affair that is fun to watch and will be played within a score most of the way. Look for Philly to keep it close in the end and possibly add to the Niners horrid start in 14. Bringing head coach Jim Harbaugh that much closer to the Michigan job–I kid I kid. He’s going back to San Diego U.

7.4 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Eagles +5

Detroit Lions At New York Jets 1 PM EST Sunday TV Fox (Lions -1.5)

Lions trying their best to not spontaneously combust with knowing they have the NFL’s top ranked defense as they travel to the new Met-O-Lands to face a pretty bad Jets team. These are the type of games in so many years past, the Lions would find a way to blow, fumble away, or let Joey Harrington Start at QB and hope for the best. That is not the mantra under the new Jim Caldwell regime, who a caller recently on 971 The Ticket said “Had a lot of Bill Walsh in him”. Let’s slow down on that, but give credit where credit is due. His team is playing the way it should, and save a implosion late on Carolina in week two, is a top 10 NFL team, looking to solidify itself as a legit NFC contender with a road win over a team they should beat. Matt Stafford, who has not looked great so far this year should feast on the Jets porous secondary and look for Reggie Bush to keep up the momentum from last week. Lions should never be in “Danger Will Robinson” in this one.


8 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Lions -1.5

ODDS TIDBIT—– With the Lions win over the Packers last Sunday Detroit went from a +$200 underdog to a +$160 favorite to win the NFC North for the first time since 1993. Packers now at +$180 and Bears at +$200. Vikings….who cares…OK +$2500- have to report he facts.

Last week 4-1

DTM’S 2014 Record ATS:10-5

DTM’s 2013 Record ATS:43-26

Dan Leach recently circled the globe lofted high above the sky on nothing but a lawn chair, 800 helium balloons, and a dream, was the first human journalist to interview Dracula, Sparked the recent Scottish Independence movement on a whim, once was in line to take over as Top Swiss Guard to protect the Pope ,only eats grapes on weekdays, and invented time travel when he hit his head on a port-a-potty on Oct 15, 1985.