Season’s greetings to one and all! It seems like it took forever, but the 2014 NFL campaign is finally here and not a second too soon. As the NFL season heats up, so do my NFL picks. I am just like you, trying to find games that have good value and a weak line. It’s all about making money and having a great time while doing so. I will be here for you each and every week to help you do just that as well as embarrass your friends and just become a more whole football fan and human being. I will take a look at five games each week with the best value and rate them on a sliding lock of the week 1-10 scale. Off to a rousing start with a 4-1 Week one, let’s do even better this week fine citizens.
DTM Song Of The Week: Here is a clip of the new The Aerosmith classic “Dream On”, easily my fave song of theirs, from their show Tuesday night at DTE/Pine Knob. You will be listening to this over and over again when we go 5-0 this week:)
Kansas City Chiefs At Denver Broncos 4:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS (Broncos -12.5)
The Chefs(misspelled on purpose) were absolutely atrocious last Sunday at home against a Titans team that has odds to win the Super Bowl about as good as Rice Owls making the College Football Playoff. that being said I still believe that K.C is a solid team that simply got off to a bad start. The Broncos are almost the opposite though as they looked as crisp as they could for three quarter against the Colts Sunday Night. What worries Broncos fans everywhere is that this team will be able to score in bunches, but will they be able to stop anyone later in games with a depth-lacking defense. I think that will be this teams biggest struggle and the Chiefs balanced offense, which get WR Dwayne Bowe back from suspension, has just the right mix to keep them in the game. Look for a Denver win, but by much less then the 12.5.
5.5 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Chiefs +12.5
Detroit Lions At Carolina Panthers 1 p.m. EST Sunday, FOX (Panthers -2.5 or 3)
This is where the Lions can go from being a hopeful contender to a true one. Detroit looked solid in their opening Monday Night Football win over the G-men, but let’s be honest the Giants are about as bad as the NFL Executive Office right now. Cam Newton did not play last week when Carolina played Tampa Bay on the road, but they didn’t need him cause Derek Anderson is dreamy and the Bucs still have no clue who they are. The matchup of Matt Stafford versus that stout, but I believe overrated Panthers D is going to be fun to watch. Look for this game to go back and forth and make a case for the game of the day. The Lions will be in it until the end and a late FG will likely be the difference.
6.5 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Lions +3 (buying the half point if needed)
Houston Texans At Oakland Raiders 4:25 p.m. EST Sunday TV CBS (Texans -3)
The Texans just lost their star #1 Overall pick Jadeveon Clowney for at least a month, but someone used the rest of their D to stifle RG3 and the Skins in the opener. That Washington offense could not have looked any worse and Texans coach Bill O’Brien seems to already be making an impact early in his tenure with the teams attitude and discipline. The Raiders hung in most of the way again the offensively challenged Jets and Oakland likely will be a struggle to watch all season, but in the Black Hole, game one, this team is primed for at least one solid performance in the first 8 games. this is where it happens and look for Derek ” Get Out Of My Dreams And Get Into My ” Carr to get off the schnide and have a big afternoon.
7.1 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Raiders +3
Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts 8:35 p.m. EST Monday Night TV ESPN (Colts-3)
This is definitely the game of the week on paper and should be as fun to watch as most of the U.S World Cup games with insane offense throughout mixed with a little insanity . Madden 15′ lovers rejoice cause this could be your Wednesday league game come to life. I was super impressed with Andrew Luck last week late in Denver, taking his team to the edge of victory after being down a million Space Bucks. Nick Foles wasn’t as impressive in the Igles win over Jacksonville, but was good late and when it counted. Look for both QB’s to light it up this week and both these teams were my picks to get to Super Bowl 49 and I go with who I think will win it all in Glendale in February in this one as well.
7.4 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Colts -3
New York Jets At Green Bay Packers 4:25 PM EST Sunday TV CBS (Packers -8.5)
I trust the Packers as far as I can throw a 50 pound medicine ball and that is about a couple of inches. I don;t trust the Jets much more, but this Jets team matches up nicely with G.B as they can slow the Packers offensive attack down and grind it out on offense. We have all been waiting for Geno Smith to have a true breakout game and this is where here get it done. I am not going to call an outright Jets win, but they will be in this or leading late and hos jut how overrated the Packers are in 14′.
8 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Jets +8.5
ODDS TIDBIT-Detroit Lions went from +$450 to win NFC North to +$210 after week one win over the G-Men. Packers went from -$160 fave to $130. Tremendous “steam” as its called in the biz, another word for wagering action, on the Lions to win the North all week long in Vegas. By far biggest division move since the start of the season.
DTM’S 2014 Record ATS:4-1
DTM’s 2013 Record ATS:43-26
Dan Leach recently circled the globe lofted high above the sky on nothing but a lawn chair, 800 helium balloons, and a dream, was the first human journalist to interview Dracula, Once was in line to take over as Top Swiss Guard to protect the Pope , only eats grapes on weekdays, and invented time travel when he hit his head on a port-a-potty on Oct 15, 1985.
Follow Dan on Twitter @dtmleach